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FoxSheet Baseball - What Wins! (5/7/2009)
It’s the most common inquiry we field at StatFox every day…what wins most on the FoxSheets? With so much information to grasp, it’s easy to get overwhelmed and jump first to the most simplistic answers, like the Game Estimator or Power Ratings for example. Thankfully, our members have had success with those, but they are missing a bigger opportunity. Look no further though. I’m here to reveal some of the best betting systems that have developed in baseball so far this season using the FoxSheets. The best part is you can still take advantage of our $159 price special and capitalize on these money making strategies.
For the first month of the 2009 baseball season, or games running between April 5th and May 4th, I turned over the FoxSheets by tracking a multitude of various data, including trend and situation stars, score projections, power rating lines, various team stats and much more. I used this data and cross-referenced it against the results of the games to see if any of the factors had significant influence on which teams won or lost. You’ll see from the systems below that indeed several hugely profitable angles were uncovered.
I tracked nearly 200 different FoxSheets scenarios, some straight forward, some using combinations of separate angles. For those of you that have been around with StatFox for awhile, you’ll remember this exercise from a few years back, called the Profitable Betting Systems. Many of the angles are the same that you may recall employing back then, and some may be new.
You’ll also notice for this year that I’ve added a new category of analysis called “Conflicts”. These will answer the age-old dilemna of how to best deal with scenarios where one angle on the FoxSheets points to one side and another angle points the opposite way.
I hope to continue this exercise for the entire season, updating the data one month at a time, but for now, you can take what I’ve revealed below and use it to profit over the next several weeks. My suggestion would be to create an excel worksheet with each day’s games on it and track the same things I have as described below in the systems. Of course, the Power Searches are also available to help you quickly gain access to the best daily data available from the Super Situations, Game Estimators, Power Lines, and Trends.
Without further ado, here are some of the top FoxSheets scenarios you might want to add to your baseball handicapping arsenal in the near future. With each, I’ve included a more detailed explanation along with its record of success this season as of May 5th. They are sorted in order of R.O.I. You’ll see that all but two of them already justify the $159 cost of the near 3-month membership available for a LIMITED TIME ONLY!
MLB153: Play on ANY team - Combination- 4 Key Edges or more PLUS SP ERA Edge
'09 Record to Date: 42-15 (73.7%, +22.25 units)
R.O.I: 39.0% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $2225
Explanation: This first system combines a new scenario in which five key areas on the FoxSheets are analyzed: Super Situation Stars, Game Estimator Winner, Power Line Winner, Total Trend Stars, and Composite Stars. If any team has an edge in four or more of those key areas plus the starting pitcher with a better ERA, the return thus far has been sizeable.
MLB72: Play on ANY team - Matchup Trends Side (at least 10*)
'09 Record to Date: 46-31 (59.7%, +17.45 units)
R.O.I: 22.7% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $1745
Explanation: Teams with a total of at least 10* ratings on the Matchup Trends section have done very well to start 2009.
MLB147: Play on ANY team - Combination-At least 10 Matchup Trend Stars & Estimator Win
'09 Record to Date: 23-12 (65.7%, +7.75 units)
R.O.I: 22.1% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $775
Explanation: If the team with 10 stars or more on the Matchup Trends section is also projected to win on the Game Estimator, the winning percentage jumps to nearly 66%.
MLB167: Play on ANY Dog team - Upset System - Estimator & Power Ratings Project Tie or Outright Upset
'09 Record to Date: 18-13 (58.1%, +6.8 units)
R.O.I: 21.9% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $680
Explanation: If both the StatFox Game Estimator and the Power Rating Line call for an underdog to either tie or pull an outright upset, 58% of the time that has produced a winner, good for a 21.9% ROI.
MLB36: Play on ANY TOTAL - Multiple 4* Super Situations
'09 Record to Date: 6-4 (60.0%, +1.5 units)
R.O.I: 15.0% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $150
Explanation: Games that have had more than one StatFox Super Situation of four stars or better on either side of the total have produced promising results in the early going.
MLB30: Play on ANY TOTAL - At least 15* Super Situations
'09 Record to Date: 22-15 (59.5%, +5.45 units)
R.O.I: 14.7% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $545
Explanation: On games where one side of the total boasts 15 stars or more of StatFox Super Situations, the results have been near 60% thus far.
MLB66: Play on ANY Dog team - Power Rating Straight Up "UPSET" Winner
'09 Record to Date: 31-27 (53.4%, +7.85 units)
R.O.I: 13.5% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $785
Explanation: The StatFox Power Rating Lines have shown decent results in the early going, especially in games where an upset if projected by the underdog.
MLB114: Play on ANY team - Total Composite Stars Side Minimum of 50 (opponent <50)
'09 Record to Date: 65-53 (55.1%, +12.8 units)
R.O.I: 10.8% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $1280
Explanation: The Total Composite Stars can be figured out by adding each teams Super Situation Stars plus its Matchup, Situational, and Manager Trend Stars. When any team has 50 or more Composite Stars and its opponent has fewer than 50, the highly rated team has proven a solid bet.
MLB156: Play on ANY team - Situations Combination- More Super Situation Stars & More Situational Trend Stars
'09 Record to Date: 68-64 (51.5%, +11.85 units)
R.O.I: 9.0% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $1185
Explanation: I’ve titled this system the “Situations Combination” because it takes the Super Situations and Situational Trends and produces a team with an overall situational edge in the game. In spots this year where a team has enjoyed the edge in stars for both categories, they have won at a marginal 51.5% rate, but good enough to provide 9% ROI.
MLB141: Play on ANY team – 4 Key Edges or more (SS, Est., PwrLine, Trends, Comp Stars)
'09 Record to Date: 102-69 (59.6%, +15.15 units)
R.O.I: 8.9% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $1515
Explanation: This is our Key Edges system without anything else added in. Look for teams that enjoy the edge in at least four of our key FoxSheets’ categories, Super Situation Stars, Estimator projected winner, Power Line winner, Total Trend Stars edge, and Composite Stars edge. Note that for the Estimator and Power Line, the team given the edge is the one simply favored to win. The projected line does not have to exceed the actual money line.
MLB42: Play on ANY Dog team - Estimator Straight Up Winner "Tie or UPSET"
'09 Record to Date: 35-34 (50.7%, +5.7 units)
R.O.I: 8.3% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $570
Explanation: Underdogs projected to win outright by the StatFox Game Estimator won their games at better than a 50% rate in the first month. Naturally this is good enough to produce a healthy betting return, 8.3% so far.
MLB45: Play on ANY team - Estimator Margin >=2.0 runs
'09 Record to Date: 34-18 (65.4%, +4.1 units)
R.O.I: 7.9% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $410
Explanation: When the StatFox Game Estimator projects one team to score 2.0 or more runs than the opponent, the result is most often a winner. Anyone who followed these plays at $100/unit in the first month came away with a cool $410.
MLB150: Play on ANY team - Trend Sweep (Matchup, Situational, Manager)
'09 Record to Date: 97-85 (53.3%, +13.15 units)
R.O.I: 7.2% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $1315
Explanation: This is a new system from back in 2006 when we last did this exercise. Since that point we have added Manager Trends to matchup and Situational Trends already in the mix. Look for teams that have more stars in each category and play them as part of a system I am naming the Trend Sweep.
MLB78: Play on ANY team - Situational Trends Side
'09 Record to Date: 193-177 (52.2%, +16.2 units)
R.O.I: 4.4% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $1620
Explanation: Of the three different trend categories that StatFox tracks, the Situational Trends have proven the most effective overall when analyzed individually. Typically, this system will produce a play for every game on a given day in baseball. When you consider that the ROI has been 4.4% when simply following the team with more Situational Trend Stars, it gives you a good indication of how powerful the FoxSheets can be.
MLB159: Play on ANY team - Combination-More Composite Stars & Better Bullpen WHIP
'09 Record to Date: 103-91 (53.1%, +7.8 units)
R.O.I: 4.0% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $780
Explanation: Although the Bullpen WHIP stat hasn’t produced as much in ’09 as I’ve grown accustomed to over the last five years or so thus far, I’m still going to be tracking it as I believe by the end of this month it will be back on track. To this point though, when you back a team with a better Bullpen WHIP and more Composite Stars on the FoxSheets, the investment has produced modestly. MLB108: Play on ANY team - More Composite Stars Side
'09 Record to Date: 192-180 (51.6%, +12.22 units)
R.O.I: 3.3% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $1222
Explanation: This system is also one of the more simple angles that someone can track using the FoxSheets and it produces a healthy mix of Favorites and Underdogs each day. So far, if you would have followed all 372 plays in which one team had more Composite Stars (All Trends + Super Situations) than the other at $100/play, you would have netted $1222.
CONFLICT ANGLESAs mentioned earlier, there are numerous times each night on the baseball betting board where info on the FoxSheets in the key areas conflicts. Here are five different conflicting scenarios and a detailing of which side has prevailed.
MLB163: Conflicts - Super Situations conflict with Total Trend Stars
Play on: TOTAL TREND STARS EDGE
'09 Record to Date: 94-77 (55.0%, +10.8 units)
R.O.I: 6.3% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $1080
Explanation: So far, the trends have proven more effective than the Super Situations, at least when considering total star ratings. However, don’t dismiss the higher rated Super Situations you’ll find each night on the Power Searches, as I’ve been told that those have been faring well too.
MLB164: Conflicts - Estimator conflicts with Composite Stars
Play on: COMPOSITE STARS EDGE
'09 Record to Date: 79-101 (43.9%, +6.42 units)
R.O.I: 3.6% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $642
Explanation: When most of the Power Trends and Super Situations seem to be pointing one way and the Estimator is going the other way, the Estimator is coming out on the short end of the stick. Though a bit more tedious, take the time to determine which team has the edge in the Composite Stars when this conflict arises.
MLB160: Conflicts - Super Situations conflict with Estimator
Play on: GAME ESTIMATOR
'09 Record to Date: 107-80 (57.2%, +2.7 units)
R.O.I: 1.4% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $270
Explanation: When conflicting directly with just the Super Situations, the Game Estimator has come out ahead thus far, with a 57.2% winning percentage.
MLB162: Conflicts - Estimator conflicts with Total Trend Stars
Play on: TOTAL TREND STARS EDGE
'09 Record to Date: 79-93 (45.9%, +2.42 units)
R.O.I: 1.4% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $242
Explanation: When the Game Estimator winner is not the same team with more Total Trend Stars, the Estimator is winning more games but losing money. In many cases, the team with the Total Trends Stars edge has more value because it is the underdog.
MLB161: Conflicts - Estimator conflicts with Power Rating
Play on: POWER RATING LINE
'09 Record to Date: 31-30 (50.8%, +0.05 units)
R.O.I: 0.1% - Monthly $100/unit Return: $5
Explanation: It happens only about twice a night on average, but the Game Estimator and Power Rating Lines will conflict on occasion. One will have Team A winning, the other will have Team B. Early results have shown the Power Rating Line to be trusted more.
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