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Coaching Power Trends Sample
StatFox Coaching Situational Power Trends favoring GREEN BAY to cover the spread
There are 2 trends with a total rating of 1 stars.
Sherman is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) after the first month of the season as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 26.2, OPPONENT 20.3 - (Rating = 0*)
Tice is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of MINNESOTA.
The average score was MINNESOTA 23.0, OPPONENT 23.6 - (Rating = 1*)

StatFox Coaching Situational Power Trends favoring the OVER against the total
There are 11 trends with a total rating of 21 stars.
Sherman is 15-2 OVER (+12.8 Units) in games played on turf as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 25.4, OPPONENT 28.9 - (Rating = 4*)
Sherman is 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) in October games as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 28.0, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 2*)
Sherman is 17-7 OVER (+9.3 Units) in road games off 1 or more straight overs as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 25.3, OPPONENT 22.9 - (Rating = 1*)
Sherman is 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 25.0, OPPONENT 24.4 - (Rating = 2*)
Sherman is 28-17 OVER (+9.3 Units) after playing a game at home as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 24.1, OPPONENT 23.6 - (Rating = 0*)
Sherman is 20-6 OVER (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 27.0, OPPONENT 20.7 - (Rating = 3*)
Sherman is 14-5 OVER (+8.5 Units) vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 27.2, OPPONENT 21.3 - (Rating = 1*)
Sherman is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) against teams who commit 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 26.1, OPPONENT 28.4 - (Rating = 3*)
Sherman is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 30.5, OPPONENT 20.4 - (Rating = 1*)
Sherman is 39-19 OVER (+18.1 Units) after the first month of the season as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 26.2, OPPONENT 20.3 - (Rating = 2*)
Sherman is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 29.0, OPPONENT 22.0 - (Rating = 3*)

 

Overview

The StatFox Coach Power Trends uncover certain situations where a given coach's teams have outperformed or underperformed their normal level of play. The section will cover two time periods of trends. 1.) The coach's games with the current team. 2.) All games he has managed, regardless of team. Only trends which apply to the current game and possess exceptionally bad or good ATS records are displayed. These trends are great indicators of how teams react to certain situations coming off a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number of runs, etc. Many of these situations will provide a different level of motivation and preparation level for the upcoming game.

How do I use this?

Some of the same strategies used with team trends are also used with coaching trends. FoxSheet Members will count the number of trends favoring each side or add up the total trend stars.

FAQ

Q: What is the star rating and how is it determined?

A: As is the case with the Super Situations, the star rating is a proprietary calculation used to judge the strength of a trend's past performance record. Trends can achieve ratings from 0* (the worst) all the way up to 10* or higher. There are four main factors that drive the trend's rating. Three of these are the same as what determines a rating on a Super Situation: 1.)the number of past games in the sample (more = better) 2.) The winning percentage of the trend and 3.) Its winning percentage relative to the average money line of the games in the sample. Unlike situations, coaching trends have an additional consideration which factors into the star rating - trends with the current team are rated higher than career coaching trends spanning multiple seasons. In essence, a career coaching trend must achieve a better record than a current team coaching trend to obtain the same star rating. The reason for this is pretty straight forward. Team personnel changes from year to year. Trends that apply to the current players are more important than ones that cover a time period where the roster has completely changed over.

Q: Some trends have red star ratings, while others have green star ratings. Also, one team's red star trends appear in their opponent's list. Why is this?

A: Just like with the statistics tables, green means good, while red means bad. A trend with a bad record can be just as valuable to a handicapper as one with a good record. Remember by definition, a trend against team A is also a reason to play on team B. This is the reason why a team's bad trends are displayed in the list of trends favoring their opponent.

Q: How do coaching trends compare with other team trends that are displayed on the FoxSheets?

A: Coaching trends are similar to team trends. In many cases, they will tell you the same thing. They test the same conditions and in many cases, test the same time window. Therefore we recommend that you don't add up or count coaching trend stars along with team trends. This will result in double-counting.

When using the coaching trends, you should pay extra attention to trends that span multiple teams. This could be an indicator of a performance pattern resulting from the coaches style. ex. A certain coach might run a conservative game plan and thus be apt to having his teams not cover as a large favorite. This trend is more a result of the coach's style and not necessarily related to the talent of the team. Other coaches may be "good motivators" who get their teams to bounce back after a loss.

Q: The FoxSheets display so many trends! Are you displaying all the team trends in your library?

A: Absolutely not! The FoxSheets database tracks thousands of trends per team. In most cases, only a small percentage of those trends are applicable to the current game. Unlike most other matchup services that blindly display all their information, the FoxSheets filter through the database and only display information that is relavent to the current matchup. But we don't stop there. The FoxSheets go an additional step further by only displaying applicable trends with statistically good or bad records. Of course, you can always view all the applicable trends for the game that you are handicapping by clicking on the View More Details link below the section.

Q: Every game has trends favoring both sides? How do I interpret this?

A: If all the trends lined up on one side every game, sports handicapping would not be a challenge! Under most circumstances, there certainly will be trends favoring both sides. However, as is the case with Super Situations, a sound filtering strategy and some handicapper instinct will reveal clearly who the trends favor. Some of the questions you should ask yourself are:

  • Which team has more trends that make sense, especially considering the circumstances of the current game? (Use your handicapper's instinct!)
  • Which team has more trends favoring them? Is there a significant difference?
  • Which team has the most total trend stars favoring them?
  • Which team has a greater number of higher rated trends? (5 stars, 4 stars, 3 stars, etc.)
  • Utilize the average score of past games. Would that score beat the current line or total?
After going through the process above, you will have a much clearer indication of who the trends are favoring.

Q: I have gone through my filtering process and I can't determine who has the edge on the trends. Now what do I do?

A: Consider it a neutral indicator. Make your pick based on other factors like the Super Situations, Game Simulator, gut feeling, injury information, etc. There is no rule that says the trends have to all be lined up on your side to pick a game.
 

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