Line Tracker Help and Strategies

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Sample Line Tracker Table

Here is a summary of past results against the spread in games where the line movement was similar to:

Opening Line = -9.5, Closing Line = -9.5

Since 1992, the road underdog has covered the spread 59 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 34 times.
Edge against the spread=HOUSTON

Over the last 3 seasons, the road underdog has covered the spread 6 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 3 times.

Since 1992, the home favorite won the game straight up 71 times, while the road underdog won straight up 25 times.

Over the last 3 seasons, the home favorite won the game straight up 7 times, while the road underdog won straight up 2 times.

Here is a summary of past over/under results in games where the total movement was similar to:

Opening Total = 42.5, Closing Total = 42.5

Since 1992, 97 games went over the total, while 93 games went under the total.

Over the last 3 seasons, 13 games went under the total, while 9 games went over the total.

Here is a summary of past ATS and Over/Under results in games where the closing line and closing total were similar to:

Closing Line = -9.5, Closing Total = 42.5

Since 1992, the road underdog has covered the spread 15 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 6 times.

Over the last 3 seasons, the home favorite has covered the spread 1 times, while the road underdog covered the spread 1 times.

Since 1992, the home favorite won the game straight up 13 times, while the road underdog won straight up 8 times.

Over the last 3 seasons, the home favorite won the game straight up 2 times, while the road underdog won straight up 0 times.

Since 1992, 14 games went over the total, while 7 games went under the total.

Over the last 3 seasons, 2 games went under the total, while 0 games went over the total.

Overview

The StatFox database is scanned for all recent games where the line and total opened or closed similar to the current games. The Line Tracker summaries display the number of covers by both the home and visiting teams, along with the number of games which went over or under the total. If the home or visiting team has achieved relative success against the line, the edge is assigned. Similarly if a higher ratio of past games went either over or under the total, an edge against the total is assigned. It is very important to note that the database searches for ALL past games with these lines and totals, not just games involving the two teams involved. The Line Tracker identifies betting patterns where the oddsmakers move a line off a key number. Watch out for games which underwent a significant line or total movement. It is important to note however, that besides betting action on one side or another, other external factors, such as injuries, can play a major role in the moving of a line.

How do I use this?

The goal of this section is to detect line patterns that may have produced edges in the past. Bookmakers usually move the lines in a predictable fashion based on the quality and quantity of action coming in on the same side. Occasionally, these line movement pattern will produce a bias on one side. You should use this section to determine which team or side of a total the bias has applied to in the past. When there is an edge, it will be indicated in bold lettering such as "Edge Against the Spread=Team". This is the side that the line movement section favors.

FAQ

Q: What source does the FoxSheets use for their lines?

A: The FoxSheets utilize a consensus line which effectively averages the line and total from several major sportsbooks. The sportsbooks used to calculate the consensus may change from time to time. However, the concept does not.

Q: How large of a range do you use in the section?

A: The range that the FoxSheets use to look up past games in the database with similar line movements is always determined by the following formula: [CurrentLine]-0.5 <= [Line] <= [CurrentLine]+0.5. In other words, add and subtract a half point from the current posted line (or total). All past games with lines in that range are included in the record.

Q: What determines whether a side is displayed in bold with an edge?

A: The quick and scientific answer is a 95% confidence interval statistical test on a normally distributed sample. This essentially means we are 95% confident that the results were not simply the result of a statistical fluke? (You might want to wipe the dust off the old Statistics 101 textbook from college!)

Q: Are the records tabulated from only games in which one of these two teams played?

A: No. As is the case with the Super Situations, these records are tracked for all games for all teams in the database.

Q: The label of the section lists the opening and closing line. What lines do the FoxSheets actually use for the queries to create the records?

A: Obviously, you cannot know the actual closing line until the game starts. Therefore the FoxSheets will use the consensus line (or total) at the time of the last FoxSheets update as the assumed closing line.

Q: Is there a best time to use the line tracker section?

A: If you are using the Line Tracker section as the basis for your play, you should wait until the last FoxSheet update posted before game time. As mention in the question above, the records are generated from closing lines in past games. Therefore, the line posted on the last update will normally be closest to the final closing line.

Q: Why do the FoxSheets add and subtract a half point when searching past games?

A: The main reason is to account for slight discrepencies in the line, such as those between the different sportsbooks. One book may post a line of -2.5, while another might post -2. The 1/2 point variance helps account for that.