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Sample Power Rating Line Table
  Power Rating
  Estimate Edge
DETROIT    
TAMPA BAY -13
 

Overview

The StatFox Power Rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A Power Rating is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the Power Rating differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated. Very often, this simple rating can magnify the difference in teams. However, as with most other sections, historically the StatFox PowerLine has been most effective in conjunction with the other sections on the FoxSheets.

How do I use this?

The Power Rating Line Estimate should be used to determine line value in a game. FoxSheets members compare the projected line up against the actual posted line. Look for differentials. According to the power rating line, should one team be favored by more (or less)? Is the wrong team favored? When the edge is significant, the FoxSheets will display a green star, highlighting the side that holds the edge.

In order for an edge to be valid, you need to determine if there are any other factors that might affect the line of the game. Are there any major injuries to either side? Does one team have more motivation to win than the other? (revenge, "must-win" situations, etc.) The less external circumstances there are, the more accurate the power line will be.

FAQ

Q: There is an green edge star favoring team A. Does that mean that I should pick them?

A: This is the most common question asked regarding the Power Line. Once an edge is determined, you should look deeper into the game. As mentioned above, look for major injuries, motivational edges, or other circumstances that could throw off the accuracy of the power ratings.

Q: Are injuries factored into the power rating line?

A: The FoxSheets do not directly factor injuries into the power rating line. The reason is that in the game of football, guessing how much a player's abscense and their substitute's insertion into the lineup will affect the final score and stats is just that...guess work. Some competitor services have claimed the ability to adjust their rating systems for injuries. However, considering that most of the backup players have limited playing time and statistics to guage their true value, you should be very skeptical. Rather than make these assumptions, the FoxSheets use an approach of "red-flagging" games where there is a significant injury. For a select few superstar players, we will not display a star edge on any game if there is a decent chance that they may not participate in the game. The reason for the red flag will always be noted in the Key Game Information section at the top of the FoxSheet.

Q: How is home field advantage handled in the calculation?

A: The FoxSheet Power Rating System uses historical league averages for determining home field advantage. We have found that using league average values is more accurate then assigning separate values to each team, a common method utilized by competitive services. The average home field advantage for all forms of professional football, including the NFL, CFL, and Arena Football is 3 points. College Football is a little higher - 4 points.

Q: Do the FoxSheets make adjustments to a team's power rating during the offseason?

A: In most cases, no adjustments will be made to a team's rating. However, we will make adjustments to team's with significant personnel changeover. ex. If a college football team loses 80% of its starters from the prior year. Or if an NFL team signs a couple of super star players. However, as mentioned above, normally rating adjustments like these are guesswork. Therefore, we tend to use them sparingly and only in cases where a team is certain to be significantly better or worse then the prior year.

Q: Are the Power Rating Line and the Game Estimator related?

A: Both of these angles are completely independent calculations. Their results are not related to each other. In fact, many members look for spots when both of these ratings systems favor the same side.
 

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