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Situational Power Trends Sample
StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring SAN FRANCISCO to cover the spread
There are 2 trends with a total rating of 1 stars.
WASHINGTON is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 19.4, OPPONENT 23.8 - (Rating = 0*)
WASHINGTON is 33-58 ATS (-30.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 21.2, OPPONENT 18.4 - (Rating = 1*)

StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring WASHINGTON to cover the spread
There are 2 trends with a total rating of 0 stars.
SAN FRANCISCO is 26-43 ATS (-21.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 19.0, OPPONENT 28.5 - (Rating = 0*)
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 21.9, OPPONENT 24.9 - (Rating = 0*)

StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring the OVER against the total
There are 1 trends with a total rating of 1 stars.
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 17.1, OPPONENT 31.8 - (Rating = 1*)

StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring the UNDER against the total
There are 2 trends with a total rating of 2 stars.
WASHINGTON is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 13.5, OPPONENT 16.0 - (Rating = 2*)
WASHINGTON is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 10.2, OPPONENT 19.5 - (Rating = 0*)

 

Overview

The StatFox Situational Power Trends uncover certain situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the StatFox Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the team in question. Only trends which apply to the current game and possess exceptionally bad or good records are displayed. These trends are great indicators of how teams react to certain situations coming off a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number passing yards, etc. Many of these situations will provide a different level of motivation and preparation level for the upcoming game.

How do I use this?

There are a two general strategies members make use of with the matchup trends. First, they look for the "best trends". Obviously this leads to the follow up question of "what are the best trends?". There are a couple ways to answer this. First, which one's make the most sense, especially given the context of the current matchup. For example, if there is a trend indicating that Cincinnati has a horrible ATS record against good passing teams and they are playing against Peyton Manning and the Colts, that is pretty important. In addition, the star rating is a solid indicator of the strength of a trend's record. The higher the rating, the stronger the trends past record has been.

Another strategy commonly employed by members is to count the number of trends or add up the star ratings of the trends favoring one side or the other. The theory is that teams with the edge in number of trends or total star ratings match up better against their opponent. Luckily the FoxSheets add this information up already for you, above the list of a team's matchup trends.

There is one other valuable use of the trends - eliminating risky picks. Let's say for example, a handicapping service that you subscribe to has given you a pick on the Chicago Bears. However, when you get to the FoxSheet, it tells you that they are a bad home team, poor team as a favorite, and can't beat good passing teams like the one they are playing in the current game. This could make you reconsider and take you off a potentially bad play.

FAQ

Q: What is the difference between the Situational Power Trends and the Matchup Power Trends?

A: Situational trends cover performance records detailing how teams perform under a set of conditions. (ex. after a 3 game losing streak, as a home favorite, against conference opponents) Situational trends as essentially a "catch-all" for all the various game conditions that the FoxSheets test. Matchup trends focus exclusively on how teams have faired against opponents of similar profiles in the past. (ex. vs. excellent passing teams, vs. team with losing records, vs poor defensive teams, etc.)

Q: What is the star rating and how is it determined?

A: As is the case with the Super Situations, the star rating is a proprietary calculation used to judge the strength of a trend's past performance record. Trends can achieve ratings from 0* (the worst) all the way up to 10* or higher. There are four main factors that drive the trend's rating. Three of these are the same as what determines a rating on a Super Situation: 1.)the number of past games in the sample (more = better) 2.) The winning percentage of the trend and 3.) Its winning percentage relative to the average money line of the games in the sample. Unlike situations, trends have an additional consideration which factors into the star rating - More recent trends are rated higher than trends spanning multiple seasons. In essence, the more seasons a trend covers, the better the record has to be to achieve a higher star rating. The reason for this is pretty straight forward. Team personnel changes from year to year. Trends that apply to the current players are more important than ones that cover a time period where the roster has completely changed over.

Q: Some trends have red star ratings, while others have green star ratings. Also, one team's red star trends appear in their opponent's list. Why is this?

A: Just like with the statistics tables, green means good, while red means bad. A trend with a bad record can be just as valuable to a handicapper as one with a good record. Remember by definition, a trend against team A is also a reason to play on team B. This is the reason why a team's bad trends are displayed in the list of trends favoring their opponent.

Q: The FoxSheets display so many trends! Are you displaying all the team trends in your library?

A: Absolutely not! The FoxSheets database tracks thousands of trends per team. In most cases, only a small percentage of those trends are applicable to the current game. Unlike most other matchup services that blindly display all their information, the FoxSheets filter through the database and only display information that is relavent to the current matchup. But we don't stop there. The FoxSheets go an additional step further by only displaying applicable trends with statistically good or bad records. Of course, you can always view all the applicable trends for the game that you are handicapping by clicking on the View More Details link below the section.

Q: What factors determine whether a team is good or bad in a certain stat profile? How do you determine your ranges?

A: The team's statistics are compared against recent league averages in that statistic. In general, a team is considered excellent or poor if they fall into the top or bottom 20% of a given statistic respectively.

Q: At what point do you count the statistics that determine the trends?

A: All trends are based on statistics going into the current game. For example, "did team A have a winning record going into the game they against team B". Rather than "does team A have a winning record now". When you are handicapping a game, your only concern is what the team has done going into the game. Obviously at that point, you have no knowledge of what they will go on to do after that game.

Q: Every game has trends favoring both sides? How do I interpret this?

A: If all the trends lined up on one side every game, sports handicapping would not be a challenge! Under most circumstances, there certainly will be trends favoring both sides. However, as is the case with Super Situations, a sound filtering strategy and some handicapper instinct will reveal clearly who the trends favor. Some of the questions you should ask yourself are:

  • Which team has more trends that make sense, especially considering the circumstances of the current game? (Use your handicapper's instinct!)
  • Which team has more trends favoring them? Is there a significant difference?
  • Which team has the most total trend stars favoring them?
  • Which team has a greater number of higher rated trends? (5 stars, 4 stars, 3 stars, etc.)
  • Utilize the average score of past games. Would that score beat the current line or total?
After going through the process above, you will have a much clearer indication of who the trends are favoring.

Q: I have gone through my filtering process and I can't determine who has the edge on the trends. Now what do I do?

A: Consider it a neutral indicator. Make your pick based on other factors like the Super Situations, Game Simulator, gut feeling, injury information, etc. There is no rule that says the trends have to all be lined up on your side to pick a game.
 

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