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Sample Super Situations
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels relative to the money line or spread. These systems are tabulated for ALL teams in the league and are not team specific. The principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel â€“ good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc. Over time, these performance patterns tend to repeat themselves. The situations and teams favored may vary depending on whether you are looking at the ATS, Teaser, Halftime, or Money Line FoxSheets. In addition, these situations will either compliment or oppose an individual teamâ€™s situational trends.
How do I use this?
The Situations are one of the most popular sections on the FoxSheets and there are many ways to utilize them. They are really like betting systems in that the best way to use them is to play the odds and pick every game in which a given system is applied. So in essence, one popular and often successful way of using the Situations is to identify one or more systems that a.) Have a good star rating (3* is usually a good starting point) b.)Maintain a good winning percentage and c.) Makes sense. Point 'C' is all-too-often overlooked. You need to believe that the system is what it is because of sound wagering principles and not due to random chance.
Another method used by many members is to add the total rating stars or count the number of situations that apply to each team. The theory is that more situations means there are more positive indicators that favor one side or total over another. Using this method, members look for games which have the greatest disparty of situations favoring one side. You will sometimes hear this being referred to in the StatFox world as the 'Star System'.
Finally, some members subscribe to the simple method of playing on the highest rated system(s) of the day. For example, if they see a 4 or 5 star situation, they play it - no questions asked. The theory is that if a situation has performed this well over a given period of time, your best odds of winning is to continue playing the same situation over and over.
Other ways members have used the situations include picking the situations with the highest winning percentage over the past 3 seasons or over the current season. Others choose to only play situations whose records qualify over a recent time period like the last 5 years. These members believe that these are the 'hottest systems' whose success is most likely to continue.
No matter which strategy you use to play the Super Situations, they are one of the most powerful handicapping angles on the FoxSheets.
FAQQ: How in the world do you guys track and back test all these conditions?
A: The sophistication of the answer helps describe while the Super Situations are such a powerful indicator. In many cases, not even the oddsmakers themselves have access to the types of situations produced on the FoxSheets! without going into too much boring detail, the formula for producing the situations involves handicapper's instinct, a ton of computing power, and years of trial and error!
Q: What is the star rating and how is it determined?
A: The star rating is a proprietary calculation used to judge the strength of a situation's past performance record. Situations can achieve rating from 0* (the worst) all the way up to 10* or higher. There are three main factors that drive the situations rating. They are 1.)the number of past games in the sample (more = better) 2.) The winning percentage of the situation (higher=better) and 3.) Its winning percentage relative to the average money line of the games in the sample. Point 3 is often the most misunderstood aspect of the situations. I would recommend reading the FAQ on the moneyline situation just below for a more detailed explanation. Although just like in real life, there are no guarantees that its success will continue. Mathematical theory supports the principle that the highest rated situations should have the best chance of continuing their success into the future.
Q: There are many situations that favor both teams. How do I know which side to pick?
A: Unfortunately, this is the nature of the beast when you are dealing with technical analysis. However, there are ways you can filter through the situations and get a better idea of which side to favor. First ask yourself, of the situations in the list, which side's situations make the most sense when I read them? Which one's make the most sense in the context of today's game. ex. If you are handicapping a playoff game and there is a specific playoff situation favoring one team, that is probably a pretty important indicator. Which side's are rated the highest or have performed best this season? ex. If 8 of the 10 situations favoring side A are negative units this season, while 5 of 6 favoring side B are positive, side B has the edge. What about repeats? Are five of the situation on one side basically telling me the same thing? Once you have gone through this narrowing process, you will find that the answer will be clear in most cases which side the situations are favoring.
Q: What if I can't determine which side the situations favor based on the filtering above? How do I interpret that?
A: To put it simply, skip it. Consider the situations to be a neutral indicator in this game and make your pick based on other sections or your own gut feeling. Remember, you don't have to play every game! Sometimes the best decision in a game is a no-play!
Q: Why do you post situations with winning percentages under 50%? I have noticed this in baseball and other sports where the money line differs from the standard -110 line.
Remember, when you are playing underdogs, the percentage needed to make a profit is often under 50%. Examine the quick chart below which shows you a breakdown of the winning percentage needed to profit, given the money line of the game.
As you can clearly see from above, when playing underdogs, you don't even need to win 50% of your picks to show a profit. Conversely, when selecting money line favorites, your winning percentage will need to exceed the standard 52.5% breakeven percentage to show a profit. The bigger the favorite, the higher the percentage needed. The bigger the underdog, the lesser the percentage needed. This is reflected in many money line situations. When the situations favors a money line underdog, as proven above, it doesn't need to hit on as high of a percentage of its games as a favorite situations does. Because, when it does the payout is much greater.
You will not see this dilemna in standard ATS and Over/Under situations. The FoxSheets use an industry standard fixed -110 money line in tracking these systems.
Q: It looks like you have the same situation repeated several times? Am I reading something wrong?
A: You are most likely reading it correctly. When a situation has been successful, the odds are high that variations of that situation that differ slightly will also be successful. ex. If "Home Favorites off and upset win as an underdog" produces a winning record, then the odds are good that "Home Favorites of 3 to 9 off an upset win as an underdog" will also produce a winning record. You must consider this fact in your filtering process mentioned above.
Q: What does this mean: 'The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 28 (50.9% of all games)'?
A: This statistic attempts to guage the number of "easy covers" for the situation in the past. Obviously, the more games you cover easily, the fewer times you will need to run to the cabinet for a shot of Pepto-Bismol!
Q: I saw handicapper [Insert Name Here] using your information to help market his picks? Are you guys aware of this?
A: Yes we are aware of it. There is an old saying that 'imitation is the more sincere form of flattery' and I guess that applies here. The best part of it is, as a FoxSheet member, you do not have to pay the $50/pick to have access to that expert information. You have access to the exact same information they do with your FoxSheets subscription! In effect, the FoxSheets make you an expert!
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