The FoxSheets and MLB Run Lines
by S.D. (5/27/02)

Many people can't seem to win run lines consistently. I have a strategy that has been successful for me.

First, I look at who is on the hill. Pedro Martinez, for example, is normally going to win by 2 each time because you can't hit the guy. If Boston scores 4, they are going to cover the -1.5. There a number of pitchers like that.

Second, how is a team hitting? The Yankees hit a ton of homers and score a lot of runs. As do Seattle & Boston, etc. Keep an eye out for these teams.

Third, Bullpen is very important as well. I bet on whether a team can hit anothers bully, or shut another team down with their own bullpen. That is a huge factor for me. I don't think I have bet against Fogg or Wells from Pittsburgh on the RL this year. They are the two best pitchers on the team and they have a good bullpen. The Pittsburgh hitters don't scare anybody, but they can play tight. Same goes for the Dodgers. If I think they will win I might stretch to the RL because once Gagne gets into the game, it's a lock.

I then go deeper into the history and probabilities on the StatFox Estimators. I bet the Run Line as much or more than the Money Line because the money is longer and teams win by 2 frequently.

Basically I ask myself; Can this team score? And can they then hold that score? It's a philosophy combined with a few numbers that has worked for me. I hope it helps you as well.