| Coke Zero 400 |
It may go by name of a different sponsor this year, but the Coke Zero 400 on Saturday night from Daytona is still one of the biggest races on the 2008 schedule. Formerly known as the Pepsi 400, this race is how NASCAR honors Independence Day weekend, and it is known for fireworks both on and off the track. The combination of night racing, superspeedway action at the circuit’s most famous track, and holiday pageantry make the Coke Zero 400 “must-see TV” and one of NASCAR’s most prestigious events. This year’s top contenders will seemingly be the whose who of NASCAR, with Kyle Busch coming in as the favorite at lofty 5-2 odds, followed by Dale Earnhardt, Jr. at 5-1, and Jimmie Johnson at 8-1. Carl Edwards (7-1) Jeff Gordon (8-1) and Tony Stewart (8-1) are the other drivers listed in single digit odds. However, bettors looking to hit the home run typically embrace this race, since Daytona has proven a great track at which to back underdogs, with the close drafting and big wreck potential of restrictor plate racing making anything possible.
To illustrate just how anything is possible, the leading driver in terms of average finish at Daytona is 13.0 by Clint Bowyer, easily the highest benchmark of any track on the circuit. Furthermore, of the actives for Saturday, 22 come in with an average finish of better than 20th. Therefore, it would indicate that the luck tends to even out. Ten entrants own a Daytona win, led by Gordon’s six. Next closest is three by Michael Waltrip. In terms of laps led, Stewart at 27.9 per race is the king, followed by Earnhardt, Jr., at 19.5.
Prior to last year’s win by Jamie McMurray in this race, Chevrolet had won the prior seven Daytona events. In fact, with all of the holiday patriotism on display typically in this race, the celebration of baseball, hot dogs, apple pie, and Chevrolet had become custom. However, the combination of the McMurray Ford win and Ryan Newman’s triumph in a Dodge here in February, has Chevy chasing a two-race losing streak. Add to that the fact that Toyota driver Kyle Busch currently leads the series and is the Daytona point leader over the last seven trips here and the manufacturer best known by its “Bowtie” could be in for another challenge.
The point standings went relatively unchanged last week at New Hampshire, despite the unusual rain-shortened finish that left Kurt Busch, Michael Waltrip, and J.J. Yeley as the top 3 finishers. The highest Chase eligible finisher was Denny Hamlin in 8th, so hardly anyone lost any ground. Incidentally, Kyle Busch finished 25th on Sunday after being involved in a late on-track skirmish with Juan Montoya, who claimed to have intentionally spun the series front runner after race worth of rough driving. Watch to see if any of that spills onto the track this week. Elsewhere, the battle for the 12th spot in the standings is really heating up. Currently holding on to that position is Kevin Harvick, but Matt Kenseth is only 15-points back and a total of five drivers between 9th and 13th are within 51 points of one another.
As mentioned earlier, Kyle Busch is the favorite at 5-2 odds, according to Sportsbook.com. He has 710 points in the last five Daytona races, more than any other driver. In fact, he and brother Kurt have finished in the Top 5 together in three of the last four races at NASCAR’s premiere track. If you recall, Newman and Kurt, Penske Racing teammates, finished 1-2 in the Daytona 500. Earnhardt, Jr., at 5-1, is certainly worthy of consideration as he is running well of late, but keep in mind that his best days at Daytona, and there were many, came years ago. He hasn’t finished better than 9th here in any of his last four starts. Stewart is always a factor in this summer spectacle, but he has been surrounded by rumors of his future lately and has been seemingly distracted by them.
Plate racing is a unique skill that some drivers have mastered while others have not. Some of the series’ lesser drivers look forward to these events as a chance to shine. Among those worthy of betting consideration are McMurray (100-1), David Gilliland, Michael Waltrip, and Dave Blaney (each 50-1 FIELD). Some of the regular strongholds who seem to struggle at plate tracks like Daytona are Carl Edwards (7-1), Denny Hamlin (12-1), and Kasey Kahne (15-1). Each of those three seems overprices, certainly when you consider the odds on defending champion McMurray.
There are a few things that are important to success at Daytona. Foremost is the ability to draft, while horsepower, and good aerodynamics run a close 2nd and 3rd. Aggressive drivers and rookies tend to be shunned out of the draft by the veterans. If this happens on the race’s last lap, a driver can fall as many as 15 spots in finishing position. The best plate drivers know how and when to make their move. One thing that isn’t all that important at Daytona, or plate tracks in general nowadays, is qualifying. As evidence, McMurray started 26th in the ’07 Pepsi 400. The chances for making up spots quickly is great. However, that said, it is good to demonstrate some horsepower in qualifying and practice. The lineup will be set on Friday at 4:10 PM ET.
It should be a colorful, exciting, and patriotic event as the Nextel Cup runs its 18th race of the season, reaching the halfway point. The Green Flag is set to drop on Saturday at 8:10 PM ET on Saturday night. As always, the StatFox NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer are here to prepare you for all of the high speed excitement… |
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| Race Name: | Coke Zero 400 | | Date, Time: | 7/5/2008, 8:00:00 PM EST | | Race Number: | #18 of 36 races in the 2008 season | | Track Name: | Daytona International Speedway | | Race Distance: | 400 miles, 160 laps | | * Note: This is a restrictor plate race. | | * Note: This race is being run at night. |
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| Average race finish time: | 0:3:00 | | Average Speed: | 155.18 MPH | | Average # of cautions: | 4 - 21 laps | | Average # of lead changes: | 23 | | Average # of drivers leading: | 9 |
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| 2007 | Jamie McMurray | Kyle Busch | Kurt Busch | Carl Edwards | Jeff Gordon | | 2006 | Tony Stewart | Kyle Busch | Kurt Busch | Boris Said | Matt Kenseth | | 2005 | Tony Stewart | Jamie McMurray | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. | Rusty Wallace | Dale Jarrett | | 2004 | Jeff Gordon | Jimmie Johnson | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. | Kurt Busch | Tony Stewart | | 2003 | Greg Biffle | Jeff Burton | Ricky Rudd | Terry Labonte | Bobby Labonte | | 2002 | Michael Waltrip | Rusty Wallace | Sterling Marlin | Jimmy Spencer | Mark Martin | | 2001 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. | Michael Waltrip | Elliott Sadler | Ward Burton | Bobby Labonte | | 2000 | Jeff Burton | Dale Jarrett | Rusty Wallace | Mark Martin | Ricky Rudd | | 1999 | Dale Jarrett | Dale Earnhardt | Jeff Burton | Mike Skinner | Bobby Labonte | | 1998 | Jeff Gordon | Bobby Labonte | Mike Skinner | Jeremy Mayfield | Rusty Wallace |
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| The current season leaders in various stat categories are listed below. |
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| Kyle Busch - 2496 | | Jeff Burton - 2432 | | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - 2352 | | Carl Edwards - 2262 | | Jimmie Johnson - 2220 | | Jeff Gordon - 2171 | | Denny Hamlin - 2150 | | Greg Biffle - 2119 | | Tony Stewart - 2042 | | Kasey Kahne - 2031 |
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| Jeff Burton - 8.7 | | Kyle Busch - 10.5 | | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - 11.4 | | Carl Edwards - 11.5 | | Jimmie Johnson - 13.8 | | Jeff Gordon - 13.9 | | Denny Hamlin - 14.7 | | Greg Biffle - 14.8 | | Mark Martin - 15.3 | | Kevin Harvick - 15.8 |
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| Kyle Busch - 5 | | Carl Edwards - 3 | | Kasey Kahne - 2 | | Ryan Newman - 1 | | Denny Hamlin - 1 | | Jimmie Johnson - 1 | | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - 1 | | Clint Bowyer - 1 | | Jeff Burton - 1 | | Kurt Busch - 1 |
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| Kyle Busch - 10 | | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - 7 | | Jeff Gordon - 7 | | Carl Edwards - 6 | | Greg Biffle - 5 | | Denny Hamlin - 5 | | Tony Stewart - 5 | | Clint Bowyer - 4 | | Jeff Burton - 4 | | Jimmie Johnson - 4 |
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| Carl Edwards - 12 | | Kyle Busch - 11 | | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - 11 | | Jeff Burton - 10 | | Matt Kenseth - 10 | | Denny Hamlin - 9 | | Jimmie Johnson - 8 | | Kasey Kahne - 8 | | Jeff Gordon - 8 | | Clint Bowyer - 8 |
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Listed below is the official starting order grid for this race. Drivers are listed on the row in which they will be starting. The qualifying speed is also displayed, unless the driver failed to qualify and was force to use a provisional to enter the race. In this case, the field contains provisional. Click the hyperlink on the driver's name to jump to a page containing his trends, stats, and angles for this race. |
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Listed below is the projected finish order according to the StatFox race simulator. The simulator factors in recent performance, qualifying position, past results at this track and track type, and overall driver strength when simulating the race. The race simulation is run 1000 times. For each driver, the table displays the number of race simulations they won, number of top 5 finishes, number of top 10 finishes, and number of times the driver failed to finish the race. In addition, the table displays the average finishing position for each driver and the projected odds of the driver winning the race. ** Click on the driver's name to jump to a page containing his respective trends, stats, and angles for this race. |
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| The top past performance trends relevant to this race are listed below. The results are sorted by average finish. To view a complete list of driver trends for the current race, browse to each driver's respective page. |
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| 1.) Kasey Kahne's average finish at track type - RESTRICTOR PLATE TRACK is 12.3. In 6 races, he has 0 wins and 3 top 10 finishes. | | 2.) Ryan Newman's average finish at track type - RESTRICTOR PLATE TRACK is 12.5. In 6 races, he has 1 win and 4 top 10 finishes. | | 3.) Jeff Gordon's average finish at track type - RESTRICTOR PLATE TRACK is 12.5. In 6 races, he has 2 wins and 4 top 10 finishes. | | 4.) David Gilliland's average finish at track type - RESTRICTOR PLATE TRACK is 15.5. In 6 races, he has 0 wins and 2 top 10 finishes. | | 5.) Jimmie Johnson's average finish at track type - RESTRICTOR PLATE TRACK is 15.5. In 6 races, he has 0 wins and 3 top 10 finishes. | | 6.) Kurt Busch's average finish at track type - RESTRICTOR PLATE TRACK is 15.8. In 6 races, he has 0 wins and 4 top 10 finishes. | | 7.) Kevin Harvick's average finish at track type - RESTRICTOR PLATE TRACK is 16.5. In 6 races, he has 1 win and 2 top 10 finishes. | | 8.) Mark Martin's average finish at track type - RESTRICTOR PLATE TRACK is 16.7. In 3 races, he has 0 wins and 1 top 10 finish. | | 9.) Kyle Busch's average finish at track type - RESTRICTOR PLATE TRACK is 17.3. In 6 races, he has 1 win and 3 top 10 finishes. | | 10.) Clint Bowyer's average finish at track type - RESTRICTOR PLATE TRACK is 17.3. In 6 races, he has 0 wins and 2 top 10 finishes. |
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| 1.) Clint Bowyer's average finish at Daytona International Speedway is 13.0. In 5 races, he has 0 wins and 3 top 10 finishes. | | 2.) Jimmie Johnson's average finish at Daytona International Speedway is 13.2. In 13 races, he has 1 win and 8 top 10 finishes. | | 3.) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.'s average finish at Daytona International Speedway is 13.9. In 17 races, he has 2 wins and 10 top 10 finishes. | | 4.) Terry Labonte's average finish at Daytona International Speedway is 14.3. In 43 races, he has 0 wins and 21 top 10 finishes. | | 5.) Jeff Gordon's average finish at Daytona International Speedway is 14.7. In 31 races, he has 6 wins and 17 top 10 finishes. | | 6.) David Gilliland's average finish at Daytona International Speedway is 15.7. In 3 races, he has 0 wins and 1 top 10 finish. | | 7.) Kevin Harvick's average finish at Daytona International Speedway is 16.2. In 15 races, he has 1 win and 5 top 10 finishes. | | 8.) Sterling Marlin's average finish at Daytona International Speedway is 16.8. In 49 races, he has 3 wins and 20 top 10 finishes. | | 9.) Jeff Burton's average finish at Daytona International Speedway is 16.8. In 29 races, he has 1 win and 8 top 10 finishes. | | 10.) Elliott Sadler's average finish at Daytona International Speedway is 16.8. In 19 races, he has 0 wins and 7 top 10 finishes. |
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| 1.) Tony Stewart's average finish over the past 3 races is 9.3. In 3 races, he has 0 wins and 2 top 10 finishes. | | 2.) Matt Kenseth's average finish over the past 3 races is 9.7. In 3 races, he has 0 wins and 2 top 10 finishes. | | 3.) Jimmie Johnson's average finish over the past 3 races is 10.0. In 3 races, he has 0 wins and 2 top 10 finishes. | | 4.) Jeff Gordon's average finish over the past 3 races is 10.7. In 3 races, he has 0 wins and 1 top 10 finish. | | 5.) Carl Edwards's average finish over the past 3 races is 11.0. In 3 races, he has 0 wins and 2 top 10 finishes. |
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| 1.) Jeff Burton's average finish over the past 10 races is 9.8. In 10 races, he has 0 wins and 5 top 10 finishes. | | 2.) Jeff Gordon's average finish over the past 10 races is 9.9. In 10 races, he has 0 wins and 5 top 10 finishes. | | 3.) Kyle Busch's average finish over the past 10 races is 10.0. In 10 races, he has 4 wins and 7 top 10 finishes. | | 4.) Carl Edwards's average finish over the past 10 races is 10.6. In 10 races, he has 0 wins and 8 top 10 finishes. | | 5.) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.'s average finish over the past 10 races is 11.7. In 10 races, he has 1 win and 6 top 10 finishes. |
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