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Using the FoxSheets - Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Some of the handicapping models suggest one team, some suggest the other, who should I take?
A: With the amount of information StatFox presents for each game, naturally there will be edges favoring each team for some games. Quite rarely do all the indicators seem to be leaning to one team. Every self-handicapper is different, and when the games seem to be a tossup, they need rely on their sports knowledge, gut feelings, and past successes to determine which sections of the FoxSheet reveal the most critical information. However, we would advise not to consistently “fade” various sections of the FoxSheet for a long period of time, as each handicapping model has been historically successful.
Q: Can you explain what factors are used in the game simulation?
A: We cannot tell the exact formula used, but we can say that team statistics are evaluated and weighed most heavily towards their most recent games and includes factors such as opponents strength, days rest, home/road performance, etc.
Q: Which strategy choice of types is the best in long period, Winning Situations, StatFox Game Simulator, StatFox PowerLine, Top Team Trends, Team Line Action?
A: The more sophisticated trends, the simulators, and the winning game situational systems are the handicapping tools that are unique to your StatFox subscription. These are also the same types of methods used by professional handicappers. In general though, anyone who is introduced to StatFox is told that all of the handicapping models presented on the report are important. Moreover, handicapping a game using StatFox models is by no means a methodical process. Many users find success with one particular model, while others may do so using one model in conjunction with another. The factors that go into the handicapping models are based solely on historical results. All of our handicapping models have endured streaks of both hot and cold, but overall have been historically successful.
Q: I do not understand what the Red and Green colored statistics represent, can you explain this to me?
A: The Red and Green indicators on both StatFox and the FoxSheets represent whether a team is either good (Green) or bad (Red) in a particular statistical category. That is, they are in the top 25% or bottom 25% for their league or nationally in that stat.
Q: Does your site track previous moneyline odds for games?
A: StatFox tracks not only spreads and totals, but money lines, teaser lines, halftime lines, and run or puck lines as well. The only place to access this type on information though is through the FoxSheets Archive, one of the most valuable parts of the FoxSheet Premium membership.
Q: Why would the StatFox Game Simulator numbers on a game change from overnight to game day?
A: There are several factors that can influence why the StatFox Game Simulator might change from one update to the next. For an overnight update, the changes can be more defined, as StatFox inputs the previous day’s results into its databases, then re-runs the reports. Even if a team or it’s upcoming opponent hadn’t played the previous day, there’s still a chance that one of their past opponents did, and that result can affect the strength of their statistics or strength of schedule ratings. In updates other than the morning, the changes are more subtle and can often be the case of simply rounding up or down on the averages of our 500+ simulations.
Q: Would you please tell me if the lines you post on your site for different sites are the closing lines or the opening lines? Also, which sportsbook do you use to get your lines?
A: The lines we post on the StatFox free pages are closing lines. On the FoxSheets Archive, we post both the opening and closing lines for each game so that members can track key line moves. We don’t get our lines from a particular sportsbook, rather it is a consensus type service that we have been using since the inception of our databases. We are able to maintain consistent line analysis because of this.
Q: Could you tell me how you arrived at the Composite Outplay Factor rating? A: The “Outplay Factor" is a simple calculation created by StatFox that determines how much a team is either “outplaying” or “being outplayed by” its opponents. It is an excellent power rating indicator and can be used to build theoretical spreads for comparison with the actual game lines. The calculation is most effective in football and basketball, and when a team has a handful of games under its belt. As the season wears on though, the outplay spreads become closer and closer to the actual, somewhat reducing the value late in a season. For each team, there is an Offensive, Defensive, and Composite Outplay Factor determined as such:
* Offensive Outplay Factor: Offensive PPG minus Opponents' Defensive Average PPG .(Positive number is good) * Defensive Outplay Factor: Defensive PPG minus Opponents' Offensive Average PPG .(Negative Number is good) * Composite Outplay Factor: Offensive Outplay Factor minus Defensive Outplay Factor
Q: What is the difference in methodology for obtaining the two different score estimations in the NCAAF and NFL sheets?
A: The StatFox Game Estimator attempts to project the final score and games statistics for each team. The first estimator factors in a team's estimated yardage gained with their yards gained per point ratio. The second estimate is derived by cross-referencing the yards per play estimates and turnovers with past games with similar stats.
Q: Do you have 2nd half NBA or NFL lines archived?
A: Because of the intense nature of the product we offer and the corresponding significant time it takes to create each FoxSheet, we are unable to offer instant type of analysis for 2nd half lines, therefore we do not track this data.
Q: When looking at the StatFox Power Trends and Super Situations in detail, when it says the three-year record, does that include the games from this year?
Yes, the current season is contained in the three-year records for both trend and situational analysis. So, in truth, the time frame for something that says “over the last three seasons” is this season plus the past two full seasons.
Q: Often the simulator projections favor one side and the number of stars in the trends or situations favor the other. Which indicator do you think is stronger?
A: The trends and situations are not at all related to the simulator projections. Therefore, what is in one section does not affect the way we calculate another section. In general, the analysis on the Super Situations, the Game Simulator, and MATCHUP Power Trends is the most proprietary to the service you have purchased, and are therefore the most often successful. Getting a consensus among these key sections is rare but will constitute a solid play when it does arise. Otherwise, picking out the best nuggets from those sections is part of the learning experience of the FoxSheets, It can be overwhelming at first, but in the long run, you WILL be a better handicapper.
Q: How do you treat a common occurrence where one side may have fewer Super Situations, but they are 3-5 stars, against the other side which has many more 2* Super Situations?
A: This is a question whose answer will differ depending upon who you ask. Some StatFox staff and FoxSheets members swear by the 4* and higher Super Situations, while others prefer longer running Situations with many samples but lesser winning percentages. In either case, your chances of success are improved as you are either backing hot, highly rated situations, or situational strategies that have stood the test of time to be successful.
Q: I'm interested in trends that are 85% or higher in football for both NCAA & NFL. Do you have any software programs that are able to track trends? I'd like to have the ability to add or delete any trends that lose their accuracy.
A: Our whole service is basically about tracking trends, situations, and statistics. If a trend is good (or bad) and relevant to that week's (or day's) game, we will display it. By switching some settings on your account, you can also display ALL of the trends we track. In either setup, it is at your discretion which trends you choose to utilize. With our newest content offerings, you are now able to quickly pull out the best available trends and situations for the current betting board.
Q: Is there anyway to put the 5* data, (and maybe even 4*) in a different color other than green so it will stand out?
A: Our newest FoxSheets offerings have addressed the issue of quickly accessing the day’s best information. With our new Power Searches, members can grab the best information in a variety of different line types and formats. This is an offering that will revolutionize the sports handicapping information industry.
Q: How does StatFox calculate its ratings for Trends and Situations?
A: StatFox calculates ratings for Power Trends and Super Situations to give credence to the most historically successful information. There are basically two things that go into determining the rating, number of samples and the winning percentage. These combine to form an ROI, or return on investment. In general, the higher the winning percentage and sample size, the higher the ROI and star rating.
Q: I do not understand the difference in the ATS and ML foxsheets for hockey. Is there a plan to have a puck line FoxSheet?
A: You are correct with regard to hockey. The FoxSheets used to track both the puck line and money line. Last season, because of an NHL rule change to add a shootout to eliminate ties, oddsmakers abandoned the 0.5 puck line and established the money line as the primary means of wagering hockey. They also standardized on a 1.5 puck line, similar to the current baseball run line. StatFox is currently working on converting our FoxSheet lines accordingly. Once our work is completed, we will cover both the money line and 1.5 puck line. In the interim, as you pointed out, the line information on the ATS FoxSheet is exactly the same as the information on the money line FoxSheet.
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